Thursday, September 11, 2008

September 11 State of Affairs at the Uganda Securities Exchange (Stock Market)

BOBU - 630, DFCU - 780, NVL - 1970, SBU - 205 UCL-250
I have already covered my sentiments about the valuations of the UCL counter in June but now things are bordering on ridiculous. The P/E ratio favoured by many people for the counter has hit 100. We are yet to see a major decline in the USE index since its inception and probably that of the exchange itself. People seem not to want to lower thier expectations on that counter. Expectations on it are even worse than those on the stanbic counter. I wonder if the Ugandan Government would bail it out in case of a collapse like the US government did for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac earlier this week. Mark you this counter is one of the smallest in equity terms on the exchange -- not too big to fail unless we have some politicians invested there.

Interestingly, Mr Owiny the general manager of Stanbic Investments, East Africa had this to say in one of the top papers in the land (monitor) (Sept 7th 2008 in the monitor). "Uganda Clays is doubtlessly the company of the future" !!!!! I really have to spend time and find that icon for eyes rolling -- it seems well deserved here. Either he is getting ready to offload his UCL shares for stanbic investments, or something even worse. (There is a slight chance that my radar is off on this one but I wouldnt bet on that -- obviously)

Stanbic continues to see little change in share price. They have opened up thier internet banking platform to customers for a one off payment of 5000. And for the most part it works well except the feature to send email to the. They dont read the mail. Also if you need to do a transfer of more than 1 Million, well you are out of luck. They have also become more aggressive on the loan front where they will come to your office with the application forms for you to fill !

Pound rate has dropped from 3500 to about 2900 in the last 3 months. I wonder how- if at all - it will affect inflows from investors in say the UK.

DFCU. This continues to be my fav. counter. For now price still hovers around the 780-820 range for the last six months. I believe there is untapped potention in this stock. I am buying as much as possible of this. Currently I have made about 2% on this counter annualised.

BOBU Got my first dividend cheque last week. If the trend continues I may have to part with this stock next month or at 1000. Since Dec I have made 130 % return annualised on this stock. I am holding this

NVL. This has moved from 2500 to 2000 in one trading day and is now heading lower. This is as a result of rights issue shares that began trading earlier in the week. I am anxious to see and over correction so that I may jump in (around 830) !